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MG

Mistras Group, Inc. (MG)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2024 revenue was $182.7M (+1.9% YoY), diluted EPS $0.20, gross margin 29.9%; Adjusted EBITDA rose 11.5% to $23.3M, reflecting operating leverage and pricing actions amid a softer downstream oil & gas turnaround season .
  • Management cut FY2024 guidance: revenue to $725–$730M (from $725–$750M), Adjusted EBITDA to $80–$82M (from $84–$89M), and free cash flow to $18–$22M (from $34–$38M) due to project pushouts and elevated accounts receivable; preliminary FY2025 outlook calls for low single-digit organic revenue growth and low double-digit Adjusted EBITDA expansion .
  • International segment led growth (+8.7% YoY), while Aerospace & Defense (+9.1%), Industrials (+17.2%), and Power Generation & Transmission (+19.7%) outperformed; downstream oil & gas declined as expected given a moderate fall turnaround season .
  • Cash generation inflected: Q3 operating cash flow $19.4M and free cash flow $13.2M; gross debt fell to $189.7M (lowest since Onstream acquisition), leverage ratio ~2.6x TTM EBITDA; management is intensifying AR/WIP processes and planning an ERP upgrade in 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Operating leverage and pricing drove bottom-line outperformance: Adjusted EBITDA +11.5% YoY to $23.3M, with SG&A down 1.7% YoY and 5.1% sequentially; “bottom line growing significantly faster than the top line” .
  • Strong segment/industry mix: International revenue +8.7% YoY; Aerospace & Defense +9.1%, Industrials +17.2%, Power Generation & Transmission +19.7% on consolidated basis .
  • Cash flow improvement and deleveraging: Q3 operating cash flow $19.4M and free cash flow $13.2M, with gross debt at $189.7M and net debt $169.3M; management paid down >$10M borrowings in Q3 .

What Went Wrong

  • Guidance cut for FY2024 (revenue narrowed, EBITDA and FCF lowered) due to project pushouts and elevated AR; mix shift (lighter high-margin Aerospace/Data) pressured EBITDA vs prior guidance .
  • Gross margin contraction vs prior year quarter (40 bps) from higher healthcare claims; North America gross margin down 170 bps to 28.4% .
  • Data Analytical Solutions revenue “flat” on implementation delays and customer pushouts; Aerospace had unanticipated project pushouts (especially international) given supply-chain dynamics (e.g., engine parts constraints) .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance (Sequential trend Q1→Q3)

MetricQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$184.4 $189.8 $182.7
Diluted EPS ($)$0.03 $0.20 $0.20
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$51.1 $56.1 $54.6
Gross Profit Margin (%)27.7% 29.6% 29.9%
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)$5.6 $12.0 $11.9
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions, non-GAAP)$16.2 $22.1 $23.3
Net Income ($USD Millions)$1.0 $6.4 $6.4
SG&A ($USD Millions)$41.2 $41.0 $38.9

Year-over-Year Snapshot (Q3 2024 vs Q3 2023)

MetricQ3 2023Q3 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$179.4 $182.7
Diluted EPS ($)($0.34) $0.20
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$54.4 $54.6
Gross Profit Margin (%)30.3% (implied) vs 29.9% reported contraction of 40 bps 29.9%

Segment Breakdown (Revenue)

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
North America$150.3 $156.4 $149.8
International$33.0 $34.3 $33.7
Products & Systems$3.2 $3.4 $3.3
Corporate & Eliminations($2.2) ($4.3) ($4.1)
Total$184.4 $189.8 $182.7

Industry Mix (Q3 YoY)

Industry ($USD Millions)Q3 2023 TotalQ3 2024 Total
Oil & Gas$103.3 $99.5
Aerospace & Defense$20.1 $21.9
Industrials$16.7 $19.5
Power Generation & Transmission$9.7 $11.7
Other Process Industries$9.8 $11.8
Infrastructure, Research & Engineering$9.5 $8.7
Petrochemical$3.9 $4.0
Other$6.5 $5.6

Oil & Gas Sub-Category (Q3 YoY)

Sub-Category ($USD Millions)Q3 2023Q3 2024
Upstream$38.0 $43.8
Midstream$26.2 $21.5
Downstream$39.0 $34.1
Total$103.3 $99.5

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPI ($USD Millions unless noted)Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
Operating Cash Flow$0.6 $4.5 $19.4
Free Cash Flow (non-GAAP)($5.3) ($1.6) $13.2
Gross Debt$198.4 $199.7 $189.7
Net Debt$181.6 $182.5 $169.3
Cash & Equivalents (Period-End)$16.9 $17.2 $20.4

Note: Non-GAAP metrics per company definitions and reconciliations in press release tables .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2024$725–$750M $725–$730M Narrowed, lower top end (lowered)
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2024$84–$89M $80–$82M Lowered
Free Cash FlowFY 2024$34–$38M $18–$22M Lowered
Preliminary OutlookFY 2025N/ALow single-digit organic revenue growth; low double-digit Adjusted EBITDA expansion New qualitative outlook

Drivers: project pushouts, current market conditions, unanticipated AR buildup (collections timing) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2024)Current Period (Q3 2024)Trend
Data Analytical SolutionsQ1: slower start from project delays; expected growth later in year; digitization roadmap Q3: revenue $17.9M flat YoY; delays/pushouts; expect mid-teens growth in 2025 Near-term delay; medium-term positive
Aerospace & DefenseQ1: ~19% growth; North America back to pre-pandemic; capacity additions (Georgia) Q3: +9.1% despite project pushouts; mid-teens growth expected in 2025; private space robust Growth intact; supply chain constrains timing
Oil & Gas TurnaroundsQ1: robust spring (upstream/mid/downstream up); fall expected to moderate Q3: downstream moderate; upstream strong (+15.2% YoY), midstream down on nonrecurring prior-year project Seasonal normalization; resilient overall YTD
Pricing StrategyQ1: ~2.5–3% contribution to growth; strategy expanding from smaller to larger accounts Q3: modest price increases; volume flatter; pricing supported revenue Sustained pricing tailwind
SG&A/Project PhoenixQ1: SG&A down, target ~21% of revenue; cost discipline Q3: SG&A 21.3% of revenue; reorg costs continue; further improvements expected in 2025 Ongoing efficiency; residual reorg costs
Working Capital/ARQ2: AR elevated; FCF negative in H1 Q3: OCF/FCF improved; AR still elevated; ERP upgrade planned; process intensity increased Improving collections posture
Healthcare ClaimsQ1: higher claims partly offset margin gains Q3: margin hit from a few high-cost claimants; millions-level impact; not structural Transient headwind

Management Commentary

  • “Revenue was up nearly 2% during the quarter, led by growth in the International Segment… Adjusted EBITDA was up over 11%… third consecutive quarter generating Net Income.” – Manuel Stamatakis, Interim CEO .
  • “We generated $19.4M of operating cash flow and $13.2M of free cash flow… gross debt is the lowest level since the acquisition of Onstream in December 2018.” – Edward Prajzner, CFO .
  • “We anticipate a meaningful improvement in net income, with a low double-digit expansion in Adjusted EBITDA and low single-digit organic revenue growth for fiscal 2025.” – Management outlook .
  • “International segment third quarter revenue was $33.7M, up 8.7%… gross margin 30.1%, up 270 bps, attributable to improved operating leverage and sales mix.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Free cash flow reduction vs prior guide driven by elevated AR (billed/unbilled); management intensifying WIP/collections and planning ERP upgrade to accelerate invoicing and workflows .
  • Pricing contributed a “couple of percent” to Q3 revenue amid flatter volume; no exit from unprofitable work, but active remediation with customers and selectivity on margins .
  • Healthcare claims expense pressured gross margins by “millions”; viewed as non-structural with impact from a few high-cost claimants .
  • Downstream outlook: strong spring vs moderate fall in 2024; 2025 could invert seasonality with fall stronger than spring; crude prices at current levels seen as non-impactful to 2025 plans .
  • EBITDA guide lowered at the same revenue range due to unfavorable mix (lighter high-margin Aerospace/Data); reorganization costs persist into 2025 as continuous improvement investments .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to S&P daily request limit constraints; as a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus consensus for this quarter [SPGI error via GetEstimates].
  • Management stated results were “in line with our expectations” and emphasized bottom-line outperformance vs top-line growth, but that is internal framing, not Street consensus .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix shift matters: When high-margin Aerospace/Data underperform due to timing, EBITDA is more sensitive than revenue; monitor segment cadence and supply-chain signals in A&D, particularly international .
  • Collections and AR are the key 2024 swing factor: Q3 OCF/FCF inflection is positive, but sustained progress on AR/WIP and ERP-led process upgrades will drive FY FCF delivery and deleveraging pace in 2025 .
  • Pricing remains an incremental tailwind, supporting margins amid flatter volumes; continued contract optimization and renewal success should underpin 2025 profitability .
  • International momentum and diversified industrial demand support resilience; watch downstream turnaround timing and midstream project comparables for quarterly volatility .
  • Healthcare claims were a non-structural headwind; margin trajectory should benefit as claims normalize and mix shifts back to higher-margin portfolios .
  • FY2024 guide reset lowers near-term expectations; preliminary FY2025 outlook signals profitable growth (low single-digit revenue, low double-digit EBITDA) as operating leverage initiatives compound .
  • Tactical implication: Near term, stock reaction may hinge on confidence in cash collections and segment mix recovery; medium term, execution on A&D growth, Data analytics ramp, and SG&A discipline under Project Phoenix can expand valuation as EBITDA scales .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

Revenue by Type (Q3 YTD Context)

Revenue Type ($USD Millions)Q3 2023Q3 2024
Field Services$122.7 $127.2
Shop Laboratories$14.8 $15.0
Data Analytical Solutions$18.0 $17.9
Other$23.8 $22.6
Total$179.4 $182.7

Non-GAAP EPS Bridge (Q3)

Item ($USD Thousands)Q3 2023Q3 2024
Net income (loss) attributable (GAAP)($10,298) $6,401
Special items, net of tax$15,848 ($146)
Non-GAAP net income$5,550 $6,255
Diluted EPS (GAAP)($0.34) $0.20
Diluted EPS excl. special items$0.18 $0.20

All non-GAAP reconciliations per company disclosures .