MG
Mistras Group, Inc. (MG)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2024 revenue was $182.7M (+1.9% YoY), diluted EPS $0.20, gross margin 29.9%; Adjusted EBITDA rose 11.5% to $23.3M, reflecting operating leverage and pricing actions amid a softer downstream oil & gas turnaround season .
- Management cut FY2024 guidance: revenue to $725–$730M (from $725–$750M), Adjusted EBITDA to $80–$82M (from $84–$89M), and free cash flow to $18–$22M (from $34–$38M) due to project pushouts and elevated accounts receivable; preliminary FY2025 outlook calls for low single-digit organic revenue growth and low double-digit Adjusted EBITDA expansion .
- International segment led growth (+8.7% YoY), while Aerospace & Defense (+9.1%), Industrials (+17.2%), and Power Generation & Transmission (+19.7%) outperformed; downstream oil & gas declined as expected given a moderate fall turnaround season .
- Cash generation inflected: Q3 operating cash flow $19.4M and free cash flow $13.2M; gross debt fell to $189.7M (lowest since Onstream acquisition), leverage ratio ~2.6x TTM EBITDA; management is intensifying AR/WIP processes and planning an ERP upgrade in 2025 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Operating leverage and pricing drove bottom-line outperformance: Adjusted EBITDA +11.5% YoY to $23.3M, with SG&A down 1.7% YoY and 5.1% sequentially; “bottom line growing significantly faster than the top line” .
- Strong segment/industry mix: International revenue +8.7% YoY; Aerospace & Defense +9.1%, Industrials +17.2%, Power Generation & Transmission +19.7% on consolidated basis .
- Cash flow improvement and deleveraging: Q3 operating cash flow $19.4M and free cash flow $13.2M, with gross debt at $189.7M and net debt $169.3M; management paid down >$10M borrowings in Q3 .
What Went Wrong
- Guidance cut for FY2024 (revenue narrowed, EBITDA and FCF lowered) due to project pushouts and elevated AR; mix shift (lighter high-margin Aerospace/Data) pressured EBITDA vs prior guidance .
- Gross margin contraction vs prior year quarter (40 bps) from higher healthcare claims; North America gross margin down 170 bps to 28.4% .
- Data Analytical Solutions revenue “flat” on implementation delays and customer pushouts; Aerospace had unanticipated project pushouts (especially international) given supply-chain dynamics (e.g., engine parts constraints) .
Financial Results
Consolidated Performance (Sequential trend Q1→Q3)
Year-over-Year Snapshot (Q3 2024 vs Q3 2023)
Segment Breakdown (Revenue)
Industry Mix (Q3 YoY)
Oil & Gas Sub-Category (Q3 YoY)
KPIs and Balance Sheet
Note: Non-GAAP metrics per company definitions and reconciliations in press release tables .
Guidance Changes
Drivers: project pushouts, current market conditions, unanticipated AR buildup (collections timing) .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Revenue was up nearly 2% during the quarter, led by growth in the International Segment… Adjusted EBITDA was up over 11%… third consecutive quarter generating Net Income.” – Manuel Stamatakis, Interim CEO .
- “We generated $19.4M of operating cash flow and $13.2M of free cash flow… gross debt is the lowest level since the acquisition of Onstream in December 2018.” – Edward Prajzner, CFO .
- “We anticipate a meaningful improvement in net income, with a low double-digit expansion in Adjusted EBITDA and low single-digit organic revenue growth for fiscal 2025.” – Management outlook .
- “International segment third quarter revenue was $33.7M, up 8.7%… gross margin 30.1%, up 270 bps, attributable to improved operating leverage and sales mix.” .
Q&A Highlights
- Free cash flow reduction vs prior guide driven by elevated AR (billed/unbilled); management intensifying WIP/collections and planning ERP upgrade to accelerate invoicing and workflows .
- Pricing contributed a “couple of percent” to Q3 revenue amid flatter volume; no exit from unprofitable work, but active remediation with customers and selectivity on margins .
- Healthcare claims expense pressured gross margins by “millions”; viewed as non-structural with impact from a few high-cost claimants .
- Downstream outlook: strong spring vs moderate fall in 2024; 2025 could invert seasonality with fall stronger than spring; crude prices at current levels seen as non-impactful to 2025 plans .
- EBITDA guide lowered at the same revenue range due to unfavorable mix (lighter high-margin Aerospace/Data); reorganization costs persist into 2025 as continuous improvement investments .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to S&P daily request limit constraints; as a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus consensus for this quarter [SPGI error via GetEstimates].
- Management stated results were “in line with our expectations” and emphasized bottom-line outperformance vs top-line growth, but that is internal framing, not Street consensus .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix shift matters: When high-margin Aerospace/Data underperform due to timing, EBITDA is more sensitive than revenue; monitor segment cadence and supply-chain signals in A&D, particularly international .
- Collections and AR are the key 2024 swing factor: Q3 OCF/FCF inflection is positive, but sustained progress on AR/WIP and ERP-led process upgrades will drive FY FCF delivery and deleveraging pace in 2025 .
- Pricing remains an incremental tailwind, supporting margins amid flatter volumes; continued contract optimization and renewal success should underpin 2025 profitability .
- International momentum and diversified industrial demand support resilience; watch downstream turnaround timing and midstream project comparables for quarterly volatility .
- Healthcare claims were a non-structural headwind; margin trajectory should benefit as claims normalize and mix shifts back to higher-margin portfolios .
- FY2024 guide reset lowers near-term expectations; preliminary FY2025 outlook signals profitable growth (low single-digit revenue, low double-digit EBITDA) as operating leverage initiatives compound .
- Tactical implication: Near term, stock reaction may hinge on confidence in cash collections and segment mix recovery; medium term, execution on A&D growth, Data analytics ramp, and SG&A discipline under Project Phoenix can expand valuation as EBITDA scales .
Appendix: Additional Data Points
Revenue by Type (Q3 YTD Context)
Non-GAAP EPS Bridge (Q3)
All non-GAAP reconciliations per company disclosures .